What is the forecasting MAPE?

Thanks to its Machine Learning Algorithm, Tenzo can generate a bespoke Forecasting Model for each of your business locations. Through our sales forecasting experience with our customers, we know our forecasts are 50-70% more accurate than a four-week average.

What is MAPE?

In Tenzo, we measure the accuracy of forecasts using MAPE: Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

MAPE shows how distant the forecast was from the actual sales.

The smaller the MAPE, the better the forecast. To see your MAPE, head to Planning > Accuracy:

MAPE is neither positive nor negative; it is absolute.

For example:

• If on Monday you sold £1000, but you forecasted that you'd sell £1200, then your MAPE is 20%.
• If you sold £1000 but forecasted £800, your MAPE is still 20% because you are 20% away from your actual sales.

What is the difference between Tenzo MAPE and Submitted MAPE?

Tenzo's sales forecasts should be challenged and adjusted by General Managers (GM) to include factors we may not be aware of and which may impact sales (e.g. local events, large groups, roadworks, etc.). We've found that GMs typically improve the Tenzo forecast by 5% to 10%. 

• The Tenzo MAPE refers to the Tenzo Original Forecast vs. Actual Sales.
• The Submitted MAPE refers to the GM's Adjusted Forecast vs. Actual Sales. 

What is a Budget MAPE?

Other than forecast MAPEs, we can also calculate the MAPE of your Budget.

This compares your Actual Sales vs. the Budget you set for that date and how far you are from it. The % you see is an absolute percentage error. 

What Cards can I use to see MAPE?

If you want to see all of your MAPEs together check out this card, that shows your Tenzo, Manager and Budget MAPEs together for the last seven days:

How to understand weekly MAPE?

In the aforementioned card, just as in the Week to Date one, you will see a MAPE for each location that is the Average of all MAPEs of the week, it is not the MAPE for the total revenue of the week.

In the example below, you can see that the 14.0% of MAPE is the Average of the MAPEs of all days of the week:

If you want us to add this card to your Overview, or if you have any further questions, email us at [e-mail].

Happy Tenzoing! 

#forecasting #mape #planning